Contents
  1. Purpose and development
    1. What research automation contributes
    2. Questions, hypotheses, and predictions
    3. Turning points in automated discovery
  2. Design an informative comparison
    1. Measure the property in the question
    2. Controls and competing causes
    3. Ablations and interactions
  3. Preserve the experiment
    1. Specify the protocol before observing
    2. Trace findings to observations
    3. Execute without moving the target
  4. Choose the next experiment
    1. Improvement versus information
    2. Search from accumulated observations
    3. Parallelism and cheaper trials
  5. Interpret and update
    1. Negative, inconclusive, or invalid
    2. Confirm beyond the search
    3. Choose the follow-up
  6. Establish scope and decide
    1. Reproduction and independent replication
    2. Stop with a bounded claim
    3. Evaluate the complete campaign
  7. Check understanding
  8. Open questions
  9. Selected talks
  10. References
  11. Talk library
← All topics

Autoresearch and Automated Experimentation

Research automation helps turn ideas into experiments and observations into subsequent work. Its attraction is practical: software can carry out repetitive implementation, execution, and analysis while people concentrate on consequential decisions. But faster experimentation makes the design of those decisions more important. This chapter explains how to specify what an experiment should establish, preserve what actually happened, and distinguish a promising result from a finding that survives scrutiny.

Purpose and development

What research automation contributes

Autoresearch is a broad label for AI-assisted or AI-directed research, not a single architecture. The work may involve proposing changes, executing experiments, inspecting results, or deciding what to try next. A script can automate a planned comparison; an agent selects actions using observations, as explained in Agent Engineering. Neither arrangement requires a team of agents.

Three achievements deserve different descriptions. Optimization finds a better artifact against a defined objective. An empirical regularity is a repeatable relationship among observations. An explanation proposes why that relationship occurs. Finding a useful regularity can be a discovery without establishing its mechanism; improving an artifact need not establish either. Langley, Simon, and Bradshaw made the distinction between empirical laws and explanatory theories explicit in their 1984 BACON report.

For example, the inspected Karpathy autoresearch protocol establishes a baseline, runs fixed-duration training changes, and keeps or discards candidates. That is bounded optimization. It is also distinct from changing the researcher itself: in Richard Socher’s usage, improving a separate small model is autoresearch, not full recursive self-improvement. The useful starting point is therefore the research question, not the autonomy label.

Questions, hypotheses, and predictions

A research question identifies what remains unresolved. A proposed solution names something to try. An optimization objective tells a search which outcomes to prefer. A hypothesis instead makes a provisional, testable claim; a prediction states an observation expected under specified conditions. Falsifiability means that some observations could count against the claim together with its assumptions. This extends the programmer’s practice of testing explanations of a failure.

A better result does not by itself distinguish explanations. Consider a hypothetical data-filtering study: a filter removes selected records, and a model learns from the remaining examples. Suppose that model performs better on the assessed tasks. Filtering may have removed unsuitable records, changed the proportions of topics encountered during training, or done both. Repeating the original comparison could confirm the improvement without separating these explanations. A useful follow-up changes the conditions so their predictions differ.

These are proposed explanations and conditional predictions, not observed results.
ExplanationDistinguishing predictionRemaining ambiguity
Removing unsuitable records contributesA benefit remains when topic proportions are held comparable.The matching procedure may also change which records are available.
Changed topic proportions explain the benefitReproducing those proportions without the same record rejection reproduces the benefit.Record suitability and topic composition may interact.

Strong Inference, John Platt’s 1964 methodological argument, emphasizes alternative hypotheses and experiments that distinguish them. The original article is useful guidance, not a guarantee of decisive tests. Exploration remains legitimate: unexpected observations can generate new hypotheses. They become predictions only when stated before the observations used to test them. Recording that boundary prevents a convincing retrospective explanation from being presented as an advance prediction.

Turning points in automated discovery

Automated discovery predates language models. Several complementary traditions developed around different bottlenecks: finding patterns, choosing informative experiments, manipulating equipment, searching programs, and preparing research reports. Statistical experimental design addresses whether comparisons are interpretable; automating their execution does not replace that responsibility.

These developments delegated different responsibilities rather than forming a ladder of general scientific autonomy.
LandmarkContribution and boundary
BACON — 1977: empirical-law searchPatrick Langley’s rule-based system found regularities and derived attributes that guided further observations in a programmer-defined artificial universe. Observable attributes and simulated laws were supplied; the implementation did not handle noisy data.
Robot Scientist Adam — 2009: hypothesis-directed laboratory workRoss King and colleagues connected biological knowledge, hypotheses, experiment planning, laboratory execution, and interpretation. This was a specialized yeast-research system with substantial human-built infrastructure.
Mobile robotic chemist — 2020: adaptive physical searchBenjamin Burger and colleagues’ Liverpool system combined laboratory instruments, a mobile robot, and observation-guided batch selection. Researchers supplied hypotheses defining ten mixture variables.
FunSearch — December 14, 2023: executable program searchBernardino Romera-Paredes and colleagues paired a frozen language model with executable evaluation and evolutionary selection. A human-supplied program skeleton restricted the editable logic.
The AI Scientist — August 12, 2024: research-workflow automationChris Lu and colleagues’ first preprint connected ideas, code changes, experiments, plots, manuscripts, and automated review. Its demonstrations began with human-written experimental templates.

The recurring boundary is what the system receives from outside: a representation of the problem, permitted interventions, instruments, objectives, and standards of acceptance. Progress can expand those boundaries without removing them. To understand a contemporary system, identify which research decisions it makes and which decisions its designers have already made.

Design an informative comparison

Measure the property in the question

Operationalization translates a property in a claim into something observable and a procedure for measuring it. Specify the intended quantity, operating conditions, calculation, reference checks, and uncertainty. A precisely computed value can still measure the wrong property. The international vocabulary of metrology distinguishes the quantity intended to be measured, the procedure, and the resulting value with its uncertainty.

In the filtering study, a dataset is the collection of records used for a task. Model fitting adjusts learned behavior using examples; Machine Learning Fundamentals explains that process. Downstream assessment tests the resulting model. Checking whether a filter accepts suitable records and checking whether those records produce a better model are different measurements. Raw answers, calculated task accuracies, and an interpretation of why performance changed must remain distinguishable.

DataComp-LM, Jeffrey Li and colleagues’ June 2024 study, compared dataset interventions through trained-model performance, fixing model and training settings within each scale. In the reported comparison, 1.4-billion-parameter models consumed 28.8 billion tokens, the model’s units of text. The RefinedWeb reproduction scored 27.5 on Core; a fastText text-classifier filter trained with OpenHermes 2.5 and ELI5 positive examples scored 30.2. Core aggregates 22 task accuracies normalized between random guessing and perfect performance. The scores measure the trained models, not the accuracy of the filters’ record judgments.

An evaluation establishes behavior under its specified conditions, not usefulness everywhere. See What an evaluation establishes and Choose checks that match the requirement. The experimental step is to choose a comparison that makes the measurement bear on the question. The distinction between record quality and downstream utility is developed further in Controlled comparison.

Controls and competing causes

An intervention is a deliberate change. A control is the reference condition against which its effect is interpreted. Confounding occurs when the comparison mixes the proposed effect with another influence that it cannot separate. If a filtered dataset is tested with a different model and a larger training allowance, the difference cannot be attributed to filtering alone.

For a proposed total filtering-policy comparison, establish the following relationship between conditions.
PropertyComparison
Starting collectionUse the same eligible source collection.
Filtering policyDeliberately vary the selection rule.
Model and training allowanceKeep the recipe and declared allowance comparable.
AssessmentUse the same target population and scoring procedure.
Resulting topic proportionsAllow policy-induced changes when estimating the total policy effect.

The last row matters. A consequence of the intervention is not automatically a confounder. Holding topic proportions fixed instead tests a narrower question: whether filtering contributes beyond the composition change. Both questions are useful, but their answers are not interchangeable. This is the distinction between an association and a specified intervention developed in Association, action, and causal effect.

Different controls answer different questions

Common eligible source → reference selection and filtering policy → two separate collections

Total-policy comparison
Reference recordsFiltered records

Keep each collection’s resulting topic proportions; they may differ.

Train a separate model on each

Compare assessed outcomes with composition changes included.

Composition-matched comparison
Reference recordsFiltered records

Additional operation: match topic proportions across the two collections.

Train a separate model on each matched collection

Ask whether a contribution remains beyond composition change.

Both comparisons use the same model recipe, declared training allowance, target population and scoring procedure.

A proposed comparison, not a reported DataComp-LM experiment. Matching changes the comparison and may change other record properties; it does not uniquely identify a mechanism.

An experimental unit is independently assigned a condition. For a training comparison, it may be a fresh run; the intended claim determines whether independent datasets are also needed. Random assignment or randomized run order prevents the schedule from systematically favoring a condition. Blocking compares conditions within groups that share a relevant nuisance factor, such as machine or data sample. Interference arises when one unit’s treatment affects another’s outcome—for example, concurrent runs competing for shared resources. Randomization does not remove that interaction. What each design supports explains the broader design choices.

Controls can also check the measurement process itself. Burger’s mobile robotic chemist included two baseline samples per batch to monitor stability. Such reference measurements help detect a drifting process; they serve a different purpose from the treatment comparison.

Ablations and interactions

An ablation disables or removes a component to test its contribution within a specified system. Its answer is conditional: removing a component from one configuration does not establish that the component is useless in every configuration. A factor is a deliberately varied property. An interaction means that changing one factor has a different effect at different settings of another.

For a small filtering experiment, consider deduplication, which handles repeated records, and topic reweighting, which changes topics’ relative training exposure. Their detailed mechanisms belong in Data Quality and Curation and Mixture weight is not corpus size. Crossing two enabled/disabled factors produces four conditions, following a full factorial design.

Denote each condition’s mean response by Ydr, with deduplication indexed first and reweighting second.

Compare deduplication-only with the reference, then combined with reweighting-only. If those two differences differ beyond uncertainty, deduplication’s contribution depends on reweighting. Changing one factor while permanently fixing the other would miss this. The interaction establishes a conditional response, not a unique explanation for it.

Compare the two deduplication effects

Ydr is the condition’s mean response: d = deduplication, r = reweighting; 0 off, 1 on.

ReweightingDeduplication offDeduplication onOn minus off
OffReference
Y00
Deduplication only
Y10
Δoff = Y10 − Y00
OnReweighting only
Y01
Combined
Y11
Δon = Y11 − Y01

Interaction: Δon − Δoff = (Y11 − Y01) − (Y10 − Y00)

Compare deduplication’s contribution with reweighting off and on. Repeated independent runs supply uncertainty for these condition means and their contrast.

Every condition must remain a coherent pipeline with comparable training allowances. Four conditions are not four adequate samples: repeated, properly assigned runs are needed to estimate variation. Zhengyao Jiang’s Aiden account reports a useful combination of model-architecture changes, quantization—representing numbers with fewer bits—and tokenization changes that alter how text is divided into model inputs. The reported gain motivates testing combinations; without controlled contrasts, it does not establish an interaction’s magnitude or cause.

Preserve the experiment

Specify the protocol before observing

An experimental protocol specifies changes, measurements, and interpretation. Its primary outcome answers the main question. Prespecify the smallest meaningful difference; detectability is not importance. Required repetitions depend on variation and needed precision, not a universal run count.

A practical protocol makes these choices inspectable.
ChoiceWhat to specify
ComparisonIntervention, reference, eligible units, assignment, and preserved conditions.
MeasurementPrimary outcome, calculation, observation window, and reference checks.
InterpretationMeaningful effect, uncertainty analysis, and planned repetitions.
ExceptionsExclusions, missing observations, execution failures, and permitted repairs.
ContinuationAllowed adaptations, analysis times, resource limits, and stopping reasons.

A pilot experiment checks feasibility and measurement. Revise defective metrics or impractical conditions, recording the pilot’s influence; design-shaping observations are not an untouched test.

Preregistration records questions and analysis plans before outcomes are observed. It makes prediction distinguishable from retrospective explanation; it does not validate the instrument. Jacob Thomas’s proposed persona study illustrates the distinction: its conditions, rubric, and directional predictions were described as fixed in advance, while the larger experiment remained unrun. Exploratory deviations can be valuable when reported as such.

Trace findings to observations

Provenance is a result’s origin and production history. Building on dataset lineage, experimental provenance separates planned conditions from actual execution and retained outputs. The W3C PROV model distinguishes artifacts, activities that use or generate them, and responsible actors. Applied here, an attempt uses identified inputs and generates observations; analysis produces a separate interpretation.

An experiment manifest should connect the following records rather than replace them with a summary.

  • IntentQuestion, hypothesis, protocol version, proposed intervention, and parent candidate.
  • Actual executionApplied change, exact code and data membership, configuration, model identity, environment or instrument conditions, and randomness controls.
  • Observations and analysisRaw outputs, measurement calculations, analysis versions, and resulting claims.
  • DispositionCompletion, failure, exclusion, negative or inconclusive finding, plus reasons and human interventions.

Keep proposed predictions distinct from observed measurements. A revised analysis should produce a new conclusion linked to the original observations, not overwrite their history. In the 2026 A-Lab correction, manual reanalysis supported 36 of 40 originally reported successes; four remained inconclusive from X-ray diffraction alone. X-ray diffraction measures patterns used to identify crystal structures. Reinterpreting those measurements was not a new synthesis campaign.

New analysis, unchanged observations

Rectangles: artifacts · rounded pills: activities

Identified inputsProtocol, code, data, configuration
↓ used by
One execution attempt
↓ generates
One retained observation artifactUnchanged original observations
↙ same artifact used by both ↘
Original analysis

↓ supports

Original conclusion
Revised analysis

↓ supports

Revised conclusion
A generic provenance structure, not a reconstruction of A-Lab’s records. Reanalysis preserves both conclusions and adds no experimental replicate. Provenance enables inspection; it does not certify correctness.

A commit identifies source, not the data or environment it encountered. A seed identifies part of randomness control, not the complete procedure. A generated summary records an interpretation, not necessarily its supporting observations. Preserving the dependency graph makes inspection possible; it does not make the experiment valid.

Execute without moving the target

An agent can feed execution results into its next choice, but experimental execution needs an additional invariant: the comparison must retain its meaning. Separate editable candidate code from protected measurement rules and confirmation data. The inspected Karpathy protocol permits changes to train.py while prohibiting changes to prepare.py and its evaluator. Those are instructions, not proof that access controls enforce the boundary.

Enforcement belongs outside the proposer: restrict which artifacts it can modify and which data it can read. Tool availability does not establish authorization. Nor does a successful command establish that the intended intervention ran; inspect the effective configuration and resulting artifacts. Interpret execution results covers the execution distinction, while Bounded execution, not safe code covers containment.

This proposed architecture separates candidate writes, controlled execution, retained observations and protected assessment. Proposer and candidate cannot write evaluator code or read evaluator-only reference data. Fixed assessment inputs and containment do not establish correctness or independent confirmation.

A faster candidate is useful only if it still performs the required computation. A GPU kernel is a function executed in parallel on a graphics processing unit; GPU Programming and Kernel Optimization explains that execution model. Recursive’s 2026 research report describes invalid kernel candidates that cached outputs, relied on persistent state, or exploited timing details. Stronger correctness checks were needed before speed counted as progress. Human inspection remained part of validation, and the team acknowledged that errors could still be missed.

A protocol deviation is a departure from the declared procedure. Repairing a typo may restore the intended intervention; changing the dataset, resource allowance, or measurement window creates a different condition unless the protocol already permits it. Record the repair and reassess comparability. A crash supplies no numerical outcome unless failure itself is a defined response. Through interruption, retain the protocol, applied candidate, attempt status, observations, and repair history; checkpointing mechanics belong to the runtime.

Choose the next experiment

Improvement versus information

One experiment may be best for improving an artifact and another for understanding it. Expected information gain means expected reduction in uncertainty, calculated under explicit hypotheses and possible observations. Because the outcome is unknown, the calculation averages over possibilities using starting assumptions, often called priors. An experiment expected to perform poorly can still be valuable if the competing explanations predict different failures.

Returning to the hypothetical filtering study, the purpose changes which comparison is useful.
ExperimentPossible valueWhat may remain unresolved
Try a stronger combined filtering policyFind a better-performing dataset.Both record suitability and topic composition may predict improvement.
Compare filtering with topic proportions matchedTest whether a contribution remains beyond composition.Matching may alter other properties; both explanations may contribute.
Recreate the topic proportions without the same filterTest whether composition alone reproduces the benefit.Failure to reproduce it does not identify the missing mechanism uniquely.

Model-discrimination design formalizes this distinction, but informativeness depends on the alternatives considered. If all candidate explanations are wrong, separating them can be misleading. Experiment selection must also account for cost, delay, and whether the result could change a decision. The same principle appears in Allocate the next computation: additional work earns its cost through a better eventual decision, not through activity alone.

Search from accumulated observations

An experimental campaign is a related sequence of experiments pursuing a question or objective. Its search space defines the permitted candidates. A search policy determines how previous observations affect the next choice. Restricting the space makes comparisons easier to manage, but also excludes solutions the system cannot express.

Choose a policy for the experimental purpose and candidate representation.
PolicyHow it choosesMain consideration
Fixed designExecutes prespecified contrasts.Useful for interpreting factor contributions.
Random searchSamples configurations from declared distributions.A simple baseline; ranges and sampling distributions matter.
Local variationModifies a retained candidate.Can remain confined to nearby ideas.
Evolutionary selectionVaries candidates retained according to evaluation.Requires informative evaluation and an effective variation mechanism.
Bayesian optimizationUses predicted outcomes and uncertainty to select evaluations.Useful when evaluations are expensive and the predictive model is appropriate.

Random Search for Hyper-Parameter Optimization, Bergstra and Bengio’s 2012 paper, explains why grids waste trials when only a few dimensions strongly affect performance: many grid points repeat values along those important dimensions. Random sampling spreads trials across them. This is a baseline for configuration search, not a universal result about generated programs.

In Bayesian optimization, a probabilistic surrogate model predicts outcomes and uncertainty across candidate settings. An acquisition function uses those predictions to choose the next trial. Its measured outcome then updates the surrogate, changing what is worth testing next. Snoek and colleagues’ 2012 account includes expected improvement per second: a promising but slow trial may be less attractive than a cheaper one.

A new observation changes the next trial

Maximize a noiseless score on nine permitted settings. The initial observations are at x = 0, 0.5 and 1; six values remain hidden from selection.

Settings x < 0.5 cost 1 s. This control changes predicted cost, never the score or observations. The denominator is a fixed cost estimate here, not a learned duration model.

EI chooses
x = 0.875 · EI 0.1173

EI / second chooses
x = 0.25 · 0.0120 score/s

Aligned surrogate and acquisition plots. Dots are observed scores; solid line is predicted mean; band is plus or minus one posterior standard deviation. Bars show acquisition only at unobserved permitted settings.Predicted score · mean ± 1 SD-20123Expected improvement / second (score/s)0.0120000.1250.1250.250.250.3750.3750.50.50.6250.6250.750.750.8750.87511Candidate setting x

Next: x = 0.25 · predicted 0.135 ± 0.698 · 1 s · Best observed score: 1.339

Observed values and acquisition calculations

x0: 0.2000 · x0.5: 0.1691 · x1: 1.3392

xMeanSDEISecondsEI/s
0.1250.17970.49680.001610.0016
0.25 · next0.13470.69830.012010.0120
0.3750.11490.49480.001110.0011
0.6250.36120.49480.0045120.0004
0.750.72860.69830.0735120.0061
0.8751.14870.49680.1173120.0098
Model assumptions and expected improvement

Zero-mean Gaussian-process prior; covariance k(x,z) = exp(−(x−z)² / (2 × 0.22²)), variance 1. Observation noise is zero; 10⁻¹⁰ diagonal jitter stabilizes the solve. Hyperparameters stay fixed. The band describes this model’s uncertainty, not measured calibration.

With best observed score b, prediction μ and standard deviation σ, EI = (μ−b) Φ(z) + σ φ(z), z = (μ−b)/σ. Φ and φ are the standard-normal CDF and density. Equal acquisition values choose smaller x. Trials reveal one value, update the surrogate and exclude that setting from further selection.

Synthetic score function, fixed Gaussian-process assumptions and deterministic reset. Expected improvement concerns score gains, not information gain or the probability that an explanation is true.

Language models can supply the variation mechanism without serving as calibrated uncertainty estimators. FunSearch generated editable program fragments and selected them through execution. Researchers then inspected generated programs, recognized useful symmetry, and restricted later searches accordingly. Candidate generation, evaluation, and interpretation remained distinct contributions. General algorithms for searching partial solutions apply, but the experimental question still determines what makes a candidate worth testing.

Parallelism and cheaper trials

A pending evaluation has started but has not returned an outcome. Parallel batches save elapsed time, but their candidates are chosen before all earlier results are available. A pending-aware policy accounts for what unfinished trials might reveal; repeatedly applying an unchanged acquisition rule can select work already running.

Completion order is not neutral when duration depends on the candidate. Updating only from fast or successful trials conditions the observed sample on completion. Keep pending, failed, and completed attempts visible rather than treating unavailable results as poor scores. Shared-resource contention is a separate problem: it changes the conditions under which outcomes are produced. Resource changes have altered failure rates and available solution strategies even with model, harness, and tasks held fixed in coding-agent experiments.

Fidelity describes an approximation’s relationship to the target setting. Multi-fidelity optimization guides expensive evaluations with smaller datasets or shorter training. Candidate-dependent approximation errors can eliminate eventual winners.

Compare unchanged candidates and assessments across training lengths, measured in epochs—passes through training data. Filtering thresholds control record retention. Check for ranking reversals; reserve resources for target-setting evaluation and independent confirmation.

A cheap ranking can discard the target winner

CandidateFixed threshold1 epoch10 epochs
A0.270% · winner73%
B0.562%81% · winner
C0.866%76%
Invented accuracies for unchanged candidates and assessment; only training length changes. Keeping only the 1-epoch winner A discards B, the 10-epoch winner. This shows a possible reversal, not its frequency.

Interpret and update

Negative, inconclusive, or invalid

Effect size is the magnitude of a measured difference, such as an absolute change in task accuracy. Interpret it alongside uncertainty and the smallest consequential difference. Identify the sources of uncertainty explains why repeated measurements can vary. Here the decision is whether the result supports the prediction, rules out a useful benefit, or remains unresolved.

A result’s disposition should preserve the distinction between the phenomenon and the ability to measure it.
DispositionInterpretation
Meaningful negative findingA valid, precise comparison rules out the proposed benefit under tested conditions.
InconclusiveValid observations remain compatible with materially different decisions.
Invalid measurementThe procedure or its assumptions do not support the intended interpretation.
Execution failureThe intended procedure did not complete; retain the failure without inventing its missing outcome.

Nondetection is not equality: wide intervals can include harm and benefit. Equivalence testing rejects effects outside justified practical bounds, supporting practical—not exact—equality.

Same estimate, different precision

Three independent studies with estimates and confidence intervals, compared against minus1 and plus1 percentage-point bounds.Precise negligible0.1 [-0.3, 0.5] ppInconclusive0.1 [-2.5, 2.7] ppMeaningful benefit2.5 [1.5, 3.5] pp-4-2-10+1+2+4+5Accuracy change (percentage points)

Shading: prespecified practical bounds [−1, +1] pp. Only the first interval is wholly inside. Each row assumes valid measurements; failure or invalid measurement is not a point on this axis.

Invented independent studies with fixed-analysis 90% confidence intervals. An interval wholly within hypothetical prespecified ±1 percentage-point bounds supports equivalence under the corresponding two one-sided tests at 5%. Practical equivalence is not exact equality.

Pseudoreplication treats dependent observations as if they were independent experimental units. A thousand readings from one prepared sample do not provide a thousand independently prepared samples. Likewise, many training seeds on one dataset investigate run variation without adding datasets. A control can weaken an explanation, but remaining alternatives and shared measurement errors still limit the conclusion.

Confirm beyond the search

The winner’s curse arises because selecting the largest noisy result also selects favorable noise. In their 2010 model-selection study, Cawley and Talbot demonstrated continued improvement in a selection criterion while independent test performance deteriorated. Even an approximately unbiased measurement can become optimistic after selection. This is a failure mechanism, not a claim that every selected gain disappears.

Multiple comparisons offer repeated chances to select favorable results. Adaptive search uses earlier scores—even with cases hidden—to shape proposals. Freeze the candidate, claim, and analysis before untouched confirmation; feedback-guided revisions make confirmation data development data. See Protect the independent assessment.

Separate selection from confirmation

Example

Selection and confirmation use separate information paths.

Development observations, including aggregate scores, guide revision and selection. Candidate, claim and analysis are frozen before confirmation. Confirmation does not select the candidate being confirmed; its findings may guide later revisions, which need a new confirmation basis.
Read the diagram as text
  • Initial candidate.
  • Development observations. Aggregate feedback included.
  • Revised candidate.
  • Frozen candidate, claim and analysis. Analysis also frozen.
  • Untouched observations. Intended-population sample.
  • Confirmation analysis.
  • Bounded conclusion.
  • Initial candidateDevelopment observations: Evaluated.
  • Development observationsRevised candidate: Informs revision.
  • Revised candidateFrozen candidate, claim and analysis: Frozen.
  • Development observationsFrozen candidate, claim and analysis: Informs selection.
  • Frozen candidate, claim and analysisConfirmation analysis: Defines assessment.
  • Untouched observationsConfirmation analysis: Independent input.
  • Confirmation analysisBounded conclusion: Supports.

Optional stopping makes the stopping time depend on observed results—for example, ending a comparison as soon as it looks favorable. Ordinary fixed-sample intervals are not designed for repeated opportunities to stop this way. A confidence sequence provides intervals whose coverage guarantee applies across observation times, allowing result-dependent stopping under its stated assumptions. Howard and colleagues develop these procedures, generally trading wider intervals for monitoring flexibility. This guarantee does not automatically correct arbitrary candidate selection, multiple hypotheses, invalid measurements, or dependence among observations.

The practical choice is a planned fixed assessment or an appropriate sequential design, not an improvised sequence of significance checks. Preserve rejected trials and analysis changes so a reader can distinguish evidence that selected the candidate from evidence that tested the frozen claim.

Choose the follow-up

A result should change the next research decision, not merely the leaderboard. Retain a hypothesis when its predictions survive useful tests; weaken or narrow it when support is limited to particular conditions. Refine it when an observation reveals a missing condition. Abandon it when the contradiction concerns its central claim and the measurement is trustworthy. An unexpected result can redirect the campaign without changing what earlier experiments predicted.

Match subsequent work to the uncertainty it can reduce.
Unresolved issueUseful follow-upRemaining limit
Run-to-run noiseRepeat the declared comparison with appropriate independent units.More repetitions do not repair a wrong measurement.
Questionable readingsTest reference cases with known expected behavior.Passing reference cases does not validate every unknown case.
Competing causesAdd a contrast on which their predictions differ.An observed difference may still admit other explanations.
Uncertain scopeTest new data or a new operating setting.Success extends support only to the settings represented.

In AlphaLab, workers inspect training behavior and evaluation results, then return postmortems to a strategist. That is a useful implementation pattern for observation-driven selection, not a guarantee that the next hypothesis improves. In A-Lab, observed reaction intermediates informed subsequent recipe choices and helped avoid routes producing the same unsuccessful products. Both examples make retained outcomes useful for deciding what not to repeat.

Establish scope and decide

Reproduction and independent replication

Following the National Academies’ terminology, computational reproduction recomputes results using the same data and methods; replication addresses the same scientific question with newly collected data. Usage varies across fields. Here, independent replication additionally requires identifying which relevant dependencies or possible errors the new test does not share. Different personnel alone do not supply that independence. The basic record requirements are covered in Preserve the run and the assessment.

Different procedures challenge different dependencies; this is not a universal ranking.
ProcedureWhat changesWhat remains shared
Inspect saved outputsInterpretation or reviewOriginal execution and observations
Rerun the computationExecution attemptData, implementation, and measurement design
Vary initialization seedsOne source of stochastic variationDataset and selection history
Collect new experimental unitsEmpirical observationsPossibly the same implementation and instrument
Implement an independent testImplementation-specific dependenciesPossibly the same data and conceptual assumptions
Test another settingOperating context or populationPossibly the same method and measurement

Variance research separates initialization, data ordering, augmentation, data sampling, and search. Repeating only initialization can miss substantial data-sampling variation; bootstrap resampling still reuses observed data. Seeds are also not a complete determinism contract: PyTorch’s documentation distinguishes random-generator control from deterministic algorithms and does not guarantee identical results across releases or platforms.

Another model agreeing with an interpretation is another judgment, not a new empirical test. If results disagree, investigate changed data, implementation, instruments, and conditions before choosing which conclusion to retain. When an unavailable dependency prevents exact reproduction, name that limit and specify the narrower claim a different test can address.

Stop with a bounded claim

Stopping one run, ending candidate search, completing confirmation, and resolving a research question are different decisions. The inspected Karpathy instructions impose a run timeout while directing the overall search to continue until human interruption. A-Lab instead stopped searching a target when it became the majority product or available recipes were exhausted. Neither a timeout nor exhausted recipes establishes that no better solution exists.

Record why the work stopped, because the reason limits the conclusion.
ReasonPermitted interpretation
Resources or safety limitFurther work was not permitted; the scientific question may remain open.
Measurement defectInterpretation must wait for a valid procedure.
Adequate precisionThe declared decision may be supported within the tested scope.
Contradicted predictionRevise or reject the affected claim, subject to measurement and assumptions.
Low expected valueAvailable follow-ups are unlikely to improve the decision enough to justify their costs.

Futility means that further work under the present design is unlikely to establish the intended effect. It does not mean the hypothesis is false. The term is formalized in adaptive-trial guidance; using it for computational campaigns is a methodological adaptation, not a clinical regulatory requirement.

Validity and novelty also need separate judgments. Adam’s researchers found that some apparently new findings were already known but absent from its database. A-Lab’s correction clarified that its novelty language meant new to its prediction platform, not necessarily new to science. Reviewers must examine methods, observations, and prior work rather than merely endorse a generated report.

End with a bounded claim: identify the intervention and reference, the setting and population, the measured difference and uncertainty, and the alternatives still unresolved. If confirmation was unfinished, say so. A useful candidate with an unresolved explanation is a legitimate outcome; calling it a completed discovery would erase the work still needed.

Evaluate the complete campaign

The best artifact and the process that produced it are different assessment objects. To test whether automation helped, compare credible human-directed, fixed-search, and AI-directed procedures with declared information access, candidate space, resources, and review conditions. Hold execution support fixed to study proposal quality; hold proposals fixed to study execution reliability. Changing experimental-design assistance asks another question. Measure the value of discretion explains the architectural comparison.

Keep campaign outcomes separate, and mark unavailable measurements as unavailable rather than zero.
OutcomeAccounting boundary
Useful conclusionsInclude informative negative findings and unresolved claims, not just winners.
Experiment expenseInclude failed trials, screening, and confirmation.
Elapsed timeMeasure through a defensible conclusion, including waiting and review.
Human effortInclude setup, intervention, verification, and integration.
Survival of findingsState which selected claims underwent confirmation or replication.

Parameter Golf’s May 2026 retrospective reports independent reproduction of every record-track leaderboard submission. It also describes agents propagating invalid approaches and submission volume exceeding manual inspection capacity, prompting automated triage for human review. That establishes verification work alongside optimization, not matched net researcher-hours saved. Similarly, The AI Scientist reported that successful execution could conceal incorrect implementation; automated manuscript review was not independent replication.

The mobile robotic chemist provides a different accounting boundary. Its 688 experiments over eight days found a light-driven hydrogen-producing formulation measured at 21.05 micromoles per hour, versus 3.36 for its baseline. The workflow required approximately two years of development; labor savings were estimates rather than a randomized human comparison. Physical experiment throughput and the total effort needed to establish the workflow are both relevant.

These cases do not form matched experimental arms, and they do not establish general productivity superiority. They show why evaluation must follow the whole campaign. Automation contributes when it helps reach useful, inspectable conclusions with acceptable resources—not simply when it generates more candidates, runs, or reports.

Open questions

  1. Reliable observation remains a bottleneck when scientifically important distinctions are small, specialized, or poorly represented in model training. Better proposal generation cannot compensate for systematically missed features. Progress would mean validating observation systems against domain references and showing that improved perception changes experimental decisions correctly.

  2. Research agents need better ways to move beyond familiar local changes without abandoning testable questions. The difficulty is distinguishing a genuinely informative new direction from an elaborate variation or a rediscovered public idea. Progress would combine broader proposals with prospective tests and traceable attribution.

  3. Net research productivity remains difficult to establish because generation, execution, and review costs move together. Matched campaign studies would need to follow all attempted work through confirmation and measure human effort as well as useful conclusions. Faster output alone cannot reveal whether verification has become the new bottleneck.

  4. Historical rediscovery tests remain vulnerable to knowledge already stored in model parameters. Restricting retrieved papers to an earlier period does not remove that knowledge. Stronger evidence would distinguish reconstruction using supplied observations from recall or recombination of later work.

Follow the curated reading path through the speakers and demonstrations behind this entry.

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19 matching talks

TalkSpeakerEventYear
Richard SocherAI Engineer World's Fair 20262026
Stefania DrugaAI Engineer World's Fair 20252025
Ievgen VakulenkoAI Engineer World's Fair 20242024
Kobie CrawfordAI Engineer Europe 20262026
Jacob E. ThomasAI Engineer World's Fair 20262026
Anju KambadurAI Engineer Summit 20252025
Remy GuercioAI Engineer Europe 20262026
Anirban ChatterjeeAI Engineer World's Fair 20262026
Boris StarkovAI Engineer Europe 20262026
Hubert MisztelaAI Engineer World's Fair 20242024
Sachin KumarAI Engineer World's Fair 20262026
Ben KunkleAI Engineer Europe 20262026
Diane LinAI Engineer World's Fair 20262026
Jerry Wu, Wyatt MarshallAI Engineer World's Fair 20252025
Armanas PovilionisAI Engineer World's Fair 20262026
Jesse HanAI Engineer World's Fair 20252025
The Pipeline Is Dead

Transcript reviewed

Iris ten TeijeAI Engineer World's Fair 20262026
Robotics: why now?

Transcript reviewed

Quan Vuong, Jost Tobias SpringenbergAI Engineer World's Fair 20252025
Danny Gollapalli, Ben Hylak, Zubin KotichaAI Engineer Europe 20262026

References

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A synthesis of selected conference talks and technical references. Citations link to the source material; they do not imply that every talk on this subject is included.

  1. Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimisation with Continuous Approximations

    Multi-fidelity optimization uses cheaper approximations to guide spending on an expensive target evaluation. The paper's training example varies dataset size and iteration count: smaller runs inform search, while the objective remains performance at the specified full setting. Its method shares information across fidelities and concentrates expensive evaluations in promising regions. Approximation quality can vary across the search space, so cheap evaluations are imperfect evidence about the target objective rather than interchangeable measurements.

  2. Equivalence Tests: A Practical Primer for t Tests, Correlations, and Meta-Analyses

    A nonsignificant difference cannot establish no effect because the study may lack power. Equivalence testing instead specifies lower and upper bounds based on the smallest effect of interest and tests whether effects outside those bounds can be rejected. Statistical detectability and practical importance differ: a large sample can detect an effect too small to matter.

  3. Randomized policy comparison and experimental uncertainty

    Randomly assigning eligible experimental units to control and treatment supports causal comparison of policy variants. For a scalar outcome, estimate the absolute effect as mean(Y_treatment)-mean(Y_control). Under independent units and appropriate large-sample conditions, an approximate 95% confidence interval is the estimated difference plus or minus 1.96 standard errors. Power depends on outcome variation, sample size and the effect one wants to detect. Choose an overall evaluation criterion before interpreting results, and examine operational metrics as well. The experiment measures outcomes during its observation period; short tests do not automatically identify long-term effects.

  4. karpathy/autoresearch: program.md

    The inspected instructions permit editing train.py while prohibiting changes to prepare.py and its evaluator. They specify a baseline run, fixed five-minute training experiments, result inspection, and keeping or reverting candidate commits. A results table records commit, validation score, memory, status, and description, with keep, discard, and crash statuses. The protocol also specifies a run timeout while directing the overall search to continue until human interruption.

  5. First Steps Toward Automated AI Research

    The speaker decomposes automated research into ideation, implementation, and validation.

  6. Heuristics for Empirical Discovery

    Pat Langley, Herbert Simon, and Gary Bradshaw’s June 25, 1984 report develops BACON’s search for quantitative empirical laws while explicitly distinguishing those regularities from explanatory theories. Their chemistry demonstration supplied both the variables to investigate and their values. They proposed additional systems that could discover qualitative relationships, design experiments, and construct explanations from empirical laws; resulting theories could then guide further tests. The authors contrast their relatively general, data-driven heuristics with expert systems containing extensive domain-specific knowledge.

  7. First Steps Toward Automated AI Research

    Under the speaker's definition, recursive self-improvement (RSI) requires modifying the research system itself; optimizing a separate small model is only autoresearch.

  8. Strong Inference

    Platt proposes explicitly developing alternative hypotheses, designing experiments whose possible outcomes can exclude alternatives, executing them clearly, and refining the remaining possibilities. A hypothesis functions as a proposed explanation with testable consequences; a discriminating experiment connects its possible observations to competing explanations. The next experiment follows what remains unresolved rather than simply repeating activity.

  9. The preregistration revolution

    Nosek and colleagues distinguish generating explanations from existing observations from testing predictions against new observations. Both support scientific progress, but presenting a post-result explanation as an advance prediction overstates its evidential status. Preregistration records research questions and analysis plans before outcomes are observed, making the distinction inspectable. Unexpected findings can generate new hypotheses without retrospectively becoming confirmatory tests.

  10. BACON: A Production System That Discovers Empirical Laws

    Patrick W. Langley’s 1977 BACON system at Carnegie Mellon searched for empirical laws in a programmer-defined artificial universe. Rules detected constants and trends, constructed derived attributes such as acceleration from velocity, and tested generalizations. Detected regularities then directed further data collection. Counterexamples caused stored hypotheses to acquire restrictions or exceptions rather than disappear. This demonstrates an early connection between representation construction, hypothesis formation, and subsequent observation selection.

  11. The Automation of Science

    King and colleagues describe a robot scientist that generates hypotheses, designs experiments testing their consequences, executes experiments, interprets observations, and repeats. Adam connected biological knowledge, experimental planning, laboratory execution, recorded data and metadata, and statistical interpretation. The researchers followed indirect growth-based findings with more direct enzyme assays. Literature checking also revealed that some apparently new findings were already known but absent from Adam's database.

  12. NIST: Completely randomized designs

    A randomized experiment assigns levels of a primary factor to experimental units and compares a response across replicated runs. For an agent failure, an illustrative intervention replaces only suspected faulty tool feedback with verified feedback, while keeping the task, initial state, model, instructions, tool implementation and budget fixed. Compare subsequent verified success against the unchanged condition, with randomized run order and repetitions. Improvement supports the tested feedback explanation under those conditions; it does not prove that planning or other interacting components were faultless.

  13. A Mobile Robotic Chemist

    Benjamin Burger and colleagues’ 2020 Liverpool study combined a mobile robot, laboratory instruments, and batched Bayesian optimization. Researchers supplied five hypotheses defining ten mixture variables. The robot prepared and illuminated samples, measured hydrogen by gas chromatography, and used observations to select subsequent batches. Two baseline samples per batch monitored stability. Across 688 experiments over eight days, the search rejected initially promising ingredients and found a formulation producing 21.05 micromoles of hydrogen per hour, versus 3.36 for its baseline.

  14. Mathematical discoveries from program search with large language models

    Published online December 14, 2023, Romera-Paredes and colleagues’ FunSearch paired a frozen language model with executable evaluation and evolutionary program selection. A human-supplied program skeleton restricted which logic changed. The system found a construction containing 512 points in eight-dimensional modulo-three space with no three distinct points collinear. Researchers inspected generated programs, identified symmetry, and restricted subsequent searches accordingly, obtaining stronger constructions. This connects an automatically found artifact to human interpretation and productive follow-up.

  15. The AI Scientist: Towards Fully Automated Open-Ended Scientific Discovery

    Chris Lu and colleagues’ AI Scientist connects idea generation, code modification, experiment execution, plotting, manuscript writing, and automated review. Its demonstrations begin with human-written experimental templates in diffusion modeling, language modeling, and learning dynamics. The paper reports implementation failures and warns that successful execution can conceal an incorrectly implemented idea. Limited experimental budgets also prevented adequate control of parameter counts, computation, or runtime in some comparisons, producing misleading conclusions.

  16. JCGM 200:2012 — International vocabulary of metrology

    The measurand is the quantity intended to be measured, including the relevant state and conditions. Measurement can itself alter the system, making the observed quantity differ from the intended one. A measurement procedure specifies the operations and calculations in enough detail to perform the measurement. A result generally combines a measured value with measurement uncertainty. Reference measurement procedures provide accepted comparisons for assessing other procedures. These distinctions support specifying the intended quantity, operating conditions, calculation, reference checks, and uncertainty before interpreting an experimental reading.

  17. DataComp-LM: In search of the next generation of training sets for language models

    Jeffrey Li and colleagues’ June 2024 DataComp-LM study fixes model and training settings within each scale so dataset interventions can be compared through trained-model performance. At its 1B-1x scale, models have 1.4 billion parameters and consume 28.8 billion training tokens. Table 4 reports Core scores of 27.5 for the RefinedWeb reproduction and 30.2 for fastText filtering trained with OpenHermes 2.5 and ELI5 positive examples. Core averages 22 task accuracies after rescaling each task so random guessing is zero and perfect accuracy is one.

  18. NIST AI RMF Playbook: Measure

    Construct validity asks whether an indicator measures the concept it claims to measure; external validity concerns generalization beyond development conditions. NIST calls for documented operating conditions, measurement assumptions, limitations and variance. Evaluations using human-subject data should reflect the population in the context of use. Applied to agent evaluation, define the deployment population and scenario dimensions before sampling, document exclusions, and compare sampled conditions with intended users, tasks and operating environments. A split within an unrepresentative dataset does not establish deployment coverage.

  19. NIST randomized blocks: applying controlled comparisons to RAG evidence

    NIST describes holding nuisance factors constant within blocks and randomizing remaining variation. Proposed RAG application: for each fixed query, compare the recorded baseline with a candidate-boundary intervention replacing candidates with independently verified sufficient source passages, then run the unchanged reranker, assembler and generator. Separately replace only the final evidence block with sufficient passages, bypassing retrieval and assembly. Keep corpus/ACL/time snapshot, question, prompt template, model/version, decoding settings, token budgets and evaluator fixed; record passage identities, order and every resulting context. For assembly diagnosis, replay the same candidates through original versus evidence-preserving assembly. Match evidence length and position where feasible; otherwise the treatment changes those too. Compare boundary coverage and answer support, not answer wording alone.

  20. The Target Trial Framework for Causal Inference From Observational Data: Why and When Is It Helpful?

    A causal question asks how outcomes would differ under alternative interventions, not merely which patients are likely to have an outcome. The target-trial framework first specifies the hypothetical randomized trial that would answer that question and then attempts to emulate it using observational data. This makes the comparison explicit and can prevent design-induced bias. It cannot repair inadequate data or make unmeasured confounding disappear; effect identification still requires assumptions such as measured baseline confounders.

  21. What exactly is ‘N’ in cell culture and animal experiments?

    An experimental unit is independently assigned to a condition; an observational unit is the entity measured afterward. Several observations can belong to one experimental unit. Treating those observations as independent experimental units creates pseudoreplication and exaggerates apparent evidence. Genuine replication also requires independently applied interventions and attention to units influencing one another. The paper distinguishes evidence within a particular subject from evidence across subjects: adding measurements within existing subjects does not supply additional subjects for a population-level claim.

  22. Guardrails and interference in online experiments

    Guardrail metrics represent outcomes experimenters seek not to degrade, distinct from the primary success metric. Standard treatment-effect analysis assumes a unit's outcome does not depend on other units' treatment assignments. Social connections, competition for shared marketplace resources or shared infrastructure failures can violate that assumption. Then a treatment-control difference need not estimate the effect of deploying one policy to everyone. Cluster randomization groups interacting units, while switchback designs alternate treatment over time; both require design-specific analysis. Clustering can reduce interference while also reducing effective sample size and statistical power.

  23. NIST Engineering Statistics Handbook: One variable at a time

    NIST shows that optimizing one input while fixing the others can miss interactions: the effect of changing one factor can depend on another factor's setting. Its example contrasts an additive response with a response containing a product of the two inputs. Empirical investigation of useful operating settings does not require first deriving a complete mechanistic model.

  24. OpenThoughts: Data Recipes for Reasoning Models

    OpenThoughts compares data-source, filtering, answer-generation and teacher choices through downstream student performance. In its answer-filtering experiments, random selection outperformed tested quality filters for math. The unfiltered arm retained twice as many examples and was explicitly not compute-controlled. Teacher choice also mattered: QwQ-32B-generated supervision outperformed DeepSeek-R1-generated supervision in the tested settings despite the teachers’ opposite standalone benchmark ordering. Selecting strategies by average performance did not yield the strongest result in every domain.

  25. NIST Engineering Statistics Handbook: Full factorial designs

    A full factorial design includes every combination of the selected factor settings. Two factors with two settings each therefore produce four treatment combinations. This supplies the design structure for crossing a component's enabled or disabled state with the presence or absence of a hypothesized workload condition.

  26. NIST: replication and randomized experimental runs

    Replication at repeated factor settings estimates process variability independently of the fitted model and supports checking lack of fit. Randomizing run order prevents systematic ordering from aligning factor levels with drift, wear or environmental changes; it does not eliminate that variation. Robotics application: predefine the response and measurement window, deliberately set timing/contact factors, keep the controller, task and measurement protocol comparable, and repeat each combination with fresh trials. Reset relevant state or record and account for carryover; changing conditions only after hardware warms up confounds treatment with time. Four single observations can fit an intercept, two main terms and an interaction exactly, leaving no residual degrees of freedom to estimate noise. Attribution therefore needs valid assignment, controlled remaining differences and suitable experimental units, not just a crossed table. A controlled simulator comparison identifies behavior of that simulator under its assumptions, not demonstrated physical-robot effects.

  27. How Autoresearch Is Changing ML Research — Zhengyao Jiang, Weco AI

    Aiden reportedly obtained a leaderboard improvement by combining Gated Attention, quantization, and a tokenizer change after the first two together barely improved the score.

  28. NeurIPS Paper Checklist Guidelines

    The checklist asks researchers to align claims with experimental scope, disclose assumptions and limitations, and provide a reproducibility route. It requests exact execution commands and environments, experimental settings and selection methods, sources of variability behind error bars, and compute and memory requirements. Total research effort should disclose preliminary or failed experiments omitted from the reported results, rather than reporting only the winning runs' cost.

  29. Practical Guide to Controlled Experiments on the Web

    Concurrent randomized treatment and control groups support causal comparison when assignment produces comparable populations, users receive consistent variants, and interactions or interference do not undermine the design. Choose the evaluation criterion before inspecting results. Define eligible users and actual exposure; unexposed users can dilute effects, but exposure filtering must preserve comparability. Statistical power is the probability of detecting a specified real effect under the design. For independent observations, standard error decreases approximately as 1/sqrt(n); detecting smaller effects requires substantially more data. A migration test that finds no significant difference can still miss a harmful change when power is low.

  30. Adaptive Designs for Clinical Trials of Drugs and Biologics

    The guidance describes group-sequential designs with prospectively planned interim analyses and stopping criteria. Futility means the trial is unlikely to demonstrate the intended effect. Repeated conventional tests require adjustment to control erroneous conclusions; stopping rules and analysis timing affect the design's guarantees. Binding and nonbinding futility rules have different consequences for those guarantees.

  31. Generalization in Adaptive Data Analysis and Holdout Reuse

    Selecting later analyses using earlier results makes the selection depend on the reused dataset. Aggregate scores can therefore influence selection even when individual test cases remain hidden; ordinary fixed-analysis guarantees no longer follow automatically. Engineering application: after using evaluation failures or scores to revise a coding agent, retain useful failures for regression testing but evaluate the revised configuration on fresh, independently sampled untouched cases for an ordinary holdout claim. Reuse is possible under specialized safeguards: Thresholdout compares training and holdout averages using noisy thresholds, releases controlled answers and stops when its overfitting budget is exhausted.

  32. The Miranda Hypothesis: How Hamilton (the Musical) Poisoned Your Persona Evals

    The speaker recommends preregistering the experimental matrix, questions, rubric, and directional predictions, and clearly labeling predictions separately from observations.

  33. PROV-DM: The PROV Data Model

    PROV separates entities with identifiable fixed aspects, activities that use or generate entities, and agents responsible for those activities. It represents derivations, revisions, usage, generation, and responsibility. An experimental application can represent protocol and dataset versions as entities, each execution attempt as an activity, and observations and analyses as generated artifacts. This separates a planned condition from the activities that actually used its inputs. PROV also distinguishes merely using an artifact from establishing that another artifact was derived from it.

  34. Author Correction: An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of inorganic materials

    The authors clarify that their novelty language meant new to the prediction platform, not necessarily new to science. Manual reanalysis supported 36 of 40 reported successes; four remained inconclusive from X-ray diffraction alone and were excluded from successful synthesis counts. Another compound was removed because it had mistakenly appeared in training data. The revised analysis underwent post-publication peer review.

  35. An autonomous laboratory for the accelerated synthesis of inorganic materials

    A-Lab connects computationally selected targets, literature-derived recipes, robotic synthesis, and physical X-ray diffraction measurements used to identify product structures. Its corrected account reports 353 experiments over 17 days, with 36 successful targets, four inconclusive targets, and 17 unobtained targets. Observed reaction intermediates guide subsequent recipe selection and help avoid repeating routes leading to the same unsuccessful products. Search stops when the target becomes the majority product or available recipes are exhausted. Researchers subsequently changed preparation and heating procedures outside the automated search's capabilities and obtained two additional targets.

  36. Reproducibility and Replicability in Science: Understanding Reproducibility and Replicability

    The report defines computational reproducibility through consistent results using the same data, computational steps, code, and analysis conditions. Replication addresses the same scientific question with newly collected data; generalizability concerns consistency across other contexts or populations. It distinguishes making artifacts available from actually recomputing results and emphasizes reporting planned versus unplanned analyses, preparation methods, and uncertainty.

  37. PyTorch documentation: Reproducibility

    PyTorch does not guarantee identical results across releases, platforms, or CPU and GPU execution, even with identical seeds. Controlling random generators and avoiding nondeterministic algorithms are separate measures. Libraries can maintain separate generators requiring their own seeds. Deterministic-algorithm mode uses deterministic alternatives where available and raises errors for known unsupported operations. Such settings can reduce single-run performance while making debugging and comparisons easier.

  38. OWASP Access Control

    Authentication establishes identity; authorization decides which actions that identity may perform on particular resources. A user allowed to initiate a transfer must still be authorized for the source account. Least privilege limits the authority of running code and service accounts, while centralized checks reduce inconsistent enforcement. In an AI application, tool availability and a model-produced argument are therefore insufficient grounds to execute a business operation; the application must apply resource- and action-level policy.

  39. Guide, Verify, Solve: The Engineering Discipline Agentic Development Demands

    The talk's 'zero trust' verification means applying a consistent, auditable verification regime regardless of code origin and using methods different from generation.

  40. First Steps Toward Automated AI Research

    Recursive describes proposing changes, implementing them, running experiments, and checking promising results for variance and evaluator exploits. In GPU-kernel search, invalid candidates cached outputs, relied on persistent state, or exploited timing details. Increasingly strict correctness checks became part of candidate admission. Humans inspected outputs with AI assistance, while acknowledging possible missed kernel errors. For fixed-budget NanoChat training, the report gives validation scores of 0.9372 and 0.9109 bits per byte for its comparison and selected solution. It explicitly cautions that assembling effective techniques does not establish independent rediscovery because underlying models may know public work.

  41. Quantifying infrastructure noise in agentic coding evals

    Anthropic varied resource allocation across Terminal-Bench configurations while holding the model, harness, and tasks constant. Resource enforcement changed infrastructure failures and task success. The report distinguishes additional headroom that reduces transient container failures from larger allocations that enable different solution strategies. In one example, installing a data-science dependency stack exhausted memory before solution code was written, whereas a leaner approach was possible. Thus an unsuccessful trajectory can reflect both an action strategy and the environment's constraints rather than a model-only defect.

  42. Effective harnesses for long-running agents

    Anthropic reports coding agents leaving partially implemented work undocumented or declaring completion after seeing only partial progress. Its experimental approach records feature requirements with explicit passing status, progress notes, and version-control history for subsequent sessions. Agents work incrementally and test features before marking them complete. A published feature fixture specifies observable interface behavior rather than merely requesting code changes. The report also describes cases where unit tests or HTTP checks missed failures visible through end-to-end browser interaction.

  43. Optimal Bayesian Design for Model Discrimination via Classification

    Experimental design first specifies what information the experiment should provide. For discriminating competing models, controllable conditions are selected to reduce expected uncertainty about which model generated the observations, or to reduce expected model-selection errors. Because outcomes are unknown when choosing the experiment, the criterion averages over possible observations under the specified models and prior assumptions. This gives an explicit objective for choosing an informative experiment, distinct from maximizing the measured performance of a candidate system.

  44. On Optimal Game-Tree Search Using Rational Meta-Reasoning

    A bounded agent chooses between acting now and performing a computation that might change its eventual action. The computation's value comes from improved external decisions, with delay reducing utility. A simplified one-step application is VOC(c)=E[U(action selected after c)]−U(current action)−cost(c), expressing cost and benefit in common utility units. Continue when a feasible computation has positive expected net value; otherwise act or stop. Information gathering can be assessed similarly, including its direct costs and effects. Estimation must account for possible results and whether they would change the decision. Partial computations can enable valuable later computations, so a purely one-step stopping rule can miss their combined value.

  45. Random Search for Hyper-Parameter Optimization

    Bergstra and Bengio formulate search as choosing trial configurations from an allowed space, evaluating them, and selecting the best observed configuration. Random search independently samples configurations and supplies a simple baseline for adaptive methods. Their analysis explains why a grid wastes trials when only some dimensions strongly affect performance: many grid points repeat the same values along the important dimensions.

  46. How Autoresearch Is Changing ML Research — Zhengyao Jiang, Weco AI

    The speaker argues that codebase abstractions bias autoresearch much as neural-network architecture biases learning.

  47. Autonomous Agents for Scientific Tasks - Sina Shahandeh, RADiCAIT

    The speaker identifies hypothesis generation, or research taste, as a bottleneck distinct from implementation in open-ended scientific work.

  48. Practical Bayesian Optimization of Machine Learning Algorithms

    Bayesian optimization builds a probabilistic model of an objective over candidate settings and uses an acquisition function to choose the next evaluation. The paper describes balancing predicted performance and uncertainty, modeling evaluation duration, and choosing expected improvement per second. For parallel work, it accounts for possible results of pending evaluations; simply repeating the unchanged acquisition decision can select an already-running experiment.

  49. National Academies: inference with missing outcomes

    If O indicates an observed outcome and Y indicates success, the observed rate estimates P(Y=1|O=1), not automatically P(Y=1). Selective feedback can make these differ. Missing completely at random means missingness is independent of measured and missing values; missing at random permits dependence on observed information but not remaining missing outcomes after conditioning. MAR therefore does not justify an unadjusted complete-case success rate. Adjustment or weighting needs justified models and adequate observation probabilities. Dependence on unobserved outcomes requires additional assumptions and sensitivity analysis. Derived bookkeeping: with S successes, F failures and U unresolved eligible cases, the eventual success fraction lies between S/N and (S+U)/N, where N=S+F+U.

  50. Accounting for Variance in Machine Learning Benchmarks

    The study separates variation from data sampling, initialization, data ordering, augmentation, and hyperparameter search. It varies individual sources while holding others fixed and estimates data-sampling variation through bootstrap resampling. In its studied tasks, data sampling was a substantial source of variability that initialization-only repetitions did not capture. Consequently, repeating training with different initialization seeds addresses a narrower uncertainty than varying the sampled data and the full selection procedure. Contributions from different sources cannot simply be added because they are not independent.

  51. NIST experimental-design terminology: replication, interactions and confounding

    NIST defines replication as repeating a treatment combination to estimate random error; an interaction occurs when one factor’s effect depends on another. RAG application: repeat each baseline/intervention condition across the same queries with a prespecified sampling policy, randomize execution order, and report paired success-rate changes with uncertainty. Record seeds when available, but a seed is not proof of deterministic service behavior. A reproducible improvement estimates the effect of that defined replacement under the fixed setup, not the sole cause of the original failure. No improvement cannot exonerate retrieval: assembly or generation can still fail. Compare candidate and assembly repairs individually and together when multiple faults are suspected. Final-context substitution bypasses both upstream stages, so its success alone cannot distinguish them.

  52. On Over-fitting in Model Selection and Subsequent Selection Bias in Performance Evaluation

    Cawley and Talbot demonstrate optimization of a finite-sample selection criterion continuing to improve that criterion while independent test performance deteriorates. Their analysis separates a criterion's bias from its variance: even an approximately unbiased estimator can be exploited by selecting favorable noise. The selected development score therefore need not estimate the selected method's repeatable performance.

  53. Best practices for the human evaluation of automatically generated text

    The authors recommend defining separate assessment criteria, reporting participant selection and demographics, and measuring agreement among multiple annotators. Practice examples spanning good and bad outputs can help reviewers establish a common rating scale. Random ordering or counterbalancing reduces presentation-order effects; fatigue and practice can otherwise confound system comparisons. Removing participants or missing responses can introduce selection bias. The paper distinguishes exploratory analysis from confirmatory hypothesis testing and explains that testing many hypotheses increases the chance of false-positive conclusions.

  54. Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences

    A confidence sequence provides intervals whose coverage guarantee holds jointly across observation times. Howard and colleagues explain that continuously monitoring ordinary fixed-sample intervals can inflate error, whereas their time-uniform procedures permit arbitrary stopping under the stated assumptions. This flexibility generally requires wider intervals than methods relying on a fixed analysis time or stronger assumptions.

  55. Generalization in Adaptive Data Analysis and Holdout Reuse

    Repeatedly choosing hypotheses or configurations using earlier holdout results can overfit the holdout itself. The paper identifies hyperparameter tuning, feature selection, stopping decisions and analyst feedback as routes through which a supposedly held-out sample influences the selected system.

  56. BioWatch PCR Assays: Key Components of a Performance Standard

    The report distinguishes controls that check the measurement process from unknown test samples. A positive control contains reference material expected to produce a signal, helping distinguish a negative sample from measurement failure. A negative control lacks the target and helps detect contamination or nonspecific signals. Known samples also check instrument and operator consistency. Expected acceptable control results should be specified before testing.

  57. ALPHALAB: Autonomous Multi-Agent Research Across Optimization Domains with Frontier LLMs — Brendan Rappazzo

    AlphaLab feeds worker postmortems back to a strategist so subsequent experiments can respond to observed model behavior.

  58. Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena

    The paper validates model judges by comparing their decisions with human judgments on the same responses, including human–human agreement as a reference. Its controlled MT-Bench study uses 58 expert-level labelers; a separate Arena analysis uses sampled crowd votes. Under one setup excluding ties, GPT-4–human agreement reaches 85%, versus 81% between humans. The authors test position bias by swapping answer order, verbosity bias through redundant longer answers, and self-enhancement bias through preferences for a judge's own outputs. These results support scoped use as preference estimators, not acceptance evidence independent of model errors.

  59. OWASP LLM10:2025 Unbounded Consumption

    Uncontrolled inference can consume shared capacity or money without crossing a content-policy boundary. Long inputs, repeated requests, and expensive operations can make request count a poor proxy for work. OWASP recommends input limits, per-user quotas, resource management, timeouts, throttling, graceful degradation, and bounds on queued and total actions. For an agent, the engineering implication is to account for the whole task, including generated tokens and downstream calls, and enforce limits before repeated work expands beyond its budget.

  60. What Parameter Golf taught us

    Parameter Golf supplied a baseline, fixed dataset, evaluation scripts, artifact-size constraint, and training-time constraint. Organizers report independently reproducing every record-track leaderboard submission. They also describe agents copying unusually strong but invalid approaches, propagating the same rule violations. Submission volume exceeded their manual inspection capacity, prompting an automated triage system that flagged submissions for human review. This documents how faster experimentation can increase verification and attribution work alongside useful optimization.

  61. First Steps Toward Automated AI Research

    The speaker invokes Karl Popper's evolutionary view of science: proposed explanations must compete and face rigorous empirical testing.

  62. The AI Scientist-v2: Workshop-Level Automated Scientific Discovery via Agentic Tree Search

    Yutaro Yamada and colleagues’ April 10, 2025 report replaces fixed code templates with staged tree search. Nodes retain plans, code, measurements, errors, and review feedback. Debugging, refinement, ablation, and repeated-seed runs have distinct roles.

  63. Autonomous Agents for Scientific Tasks - Sina Shahandeh, RADiCAIT

    The speaker argues that models can miss small scientifically important image features because they lack appropriate scientific training data.

  64. How Autoresearch Is Changing ML Research — Zhengyao Jiang, Weco AI

    In this competition, the speaker traces almost all of Aiden's record-producing ideas to human sources; its strength was finding, implementing, and combining them.

  65. LLM Scientific Reasoning: How to Make AI Capable of Nobel Prize Discoveries

    Restricting retrieved papers to a historical cutoff did not prevent the model from using knowledge learned after the discovery.

  66. Autonomous Agents for Scientific Tasks - Sina Shahandeh, RADiCAIT

    Explicitly decompose the problem into linked hierarchical documents before asking the agent to propose improvements.

  67. ALPHALAB: Autonomous Multi-Agent Research Across Optimization Domains with Frontier LLMs — Brendan Rappazzo

    A Jira-style or Kanban board provides concrete intervention points for autonomous research.

  68. ALPHALAB: Autonomous Multi-Agent Research Across Optimization Domains with Frontier LLMs — Brendan Rappazzo

    A flawed evaluation can invalidate the entire optimization process; the speaker recommends starting with a clear way to measure success.

  69. How Autoresearch Is Changing ML Research — Zhengyao Jiang, Weco AI

    Aiden couples public-source research and experiments with a quality gate before publishing a pull request.

  70. Verifiable Environments for AI in Biology — Kenny Workman, LatchBio

    Data analysis may provide a verifiable substrate for agentic biology, analogous to code in software engineering.

  71. Verifiable Environments for AI in Biology — Kenny Workman, LatchBio

    SpatialBench decomposes analysis workflows into smaller tasks with prepared data, scientific prompts, and deterministic graders.

  72. Verifiable Environments for AI in Biology — Kenny Workman, LatchBio

    SpatialBench-Long evaluates whole workflows contextualized by experimental design, literature, and the original scientific goal.